Even if it is darker in the markets these days the anomaly should be notedMy job is they tell the well in good rhythmNew flexibility in the Caisse d'Epargne groupThe first of them is the shortage of waterThe sanction was immediate the action lost 5000 tonnes per year in addition to the 265A way of marrying tradition and modernityIt therefore decides to cool the buildingWhere there are uniforms there are burrsThe rally was of short duration for the rugbyThe euro will save the growth of the countries members of the Organization for cooperation and development (OECD) in 2007. This is one of the main findings of the report of the organization dedicated to the 30 richest countries of the World Economic Outlook, published yesterday in Paris. The growth of these countries should reach 2.5 next year and not more 2.9 as put forward in June. This slight deceleration to 3.2 expected this year is due mainly to the slowdown expected across the Atlantic, nearly a point, under the effect of the ongoing correction, observed in the real estate market. A situation which is not reminiscent encountered in 2000, point Jean-Philippe Cotis, Chief Economist of the organization. At the time, the US economic slowdown is was passed to the other developed economies and it was accompanied by a severe correction in the stock market decline. So far, reassure, history should not be repeated in the coming months.
First due to a lack of speculative bubble on the stock markets. "The price of the stock assets lies at the level of its historical average," observes Jean-Philippe Cotis. Then, in terms of the economy generally "global supply and demand balance about, overheating was evident at the previous peak of activity", in 2000. Without excluding, however, a dark scenario similar to that of the beginning of the century, it is more likely that a rebalancing of growth occurs. With a little less important activity in the United States and the Japan offset, in part, the strengthening of the euro area. Growth would remain strong in emerging economies and, in particular, China, India and Russia.
The strong euro is not concerned
Nevertheless, regrets Jean-Philippe Cotis, growth Chinese more than 10 yet next year is of no assistance at the global level. Unless a reform of its policy of Exchange with a revaluation of the yuan may increase domestic demand, it will continue to depend on external demand, i.e. of its exports. "The temptation of the Chinese authorities to reduce domestic demand to prevent overheating of the economy can only help to increase a little more trade surplus", explains Jean-Philippe Cotis. The same observation applies also to the Japan, whose internal consumption is struggling to recover. "The growth of nominal wages is perhaps evaporate after eighteen months only for positive change." "Even if the Japanese growth can rely on high profits and a strong expansion of export markets, it must find also support on a progression, at least moderate, the expenditure of households", he added.
The euro zone will be one of the pillars of the growth of rich countries next year. In Germany, rising to come the VAT should remove one point percentage to the increase in consumption. Also the growth is estimated at 1.8, 2.6 this year. This reflux will not prevent the growth of the eurozone to rise from 2.2 in 2007. In this context, the European Central Bank should continue the tightening of monetary policy, with a rate which should be, in the light of the standards of OECD, between 4 and 4.5. This recommendation, however, is based on an exchange rate of the euro around 1.28 dollar. However, if the increase in the single currency of the last few days to intensify and accelerate, the ECB should therefore adjust the pace and extent of its monetary tightening. But for the time being, the rate of Exchange entering is not alarming and reflects the force found the European economy. "Do not be surprised that the euro is making to a period of recovery of activity in the euro area." "I do not think, therefore, that the assessment, at least in the limits that we have observed so far, that is of concern", concluded yesterday, Jean-Philippe Cotis.
